Now, when he Coronavirus pandemic curve is tending to recede, with diminishing numbers, States like Goa becoming the first Coronavirus-free State and Arunachal Pradesh on its heels, this spread might regain momentum in early to mid-May, according to projections in a study conducted jointly by global consulting firm Protiviti and Times Network. The prediction is that the numbers might increase from 30,000 and in the worst case to 286,000. Around 30% of the affected people may require intensive care facilities.

The Times Fact India Outbreak Report estimates the extent to which Coronavirus is expected to affect the country is based on the statistical measures computed three forecasting models: percentage-based, time series and Susceptible Exposed to Infected Recovered (SEIR). The SEIR model is in view that the pandemic may continue nationwide until August end. Few States may escape the crisis by late May or early latest by June while other States with a higher number of infected people may take longer. The study is completely based on Central government data, information from government bulletins and daily updates from the health ministry and no unverified sources were used.