The Super Cyclonic Storm ‘AMPHAN’ (pronounced as UM-PUN) over Northwest Bay of Bengal moved north-northeastwards with a speed of 22 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2020 as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm over Northwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 19.8°N and longitude 87.7°E, about 120 km east-southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 200 km south of Digha (West Bengal) and 360 km southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). It is very likely to move north-northeastwards across the northwest Bay of Bengal and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) close to Sundarbans during Afternoon to Evening hours of today, the 20th May 2020 with maximum sustained wind speed of 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph. Landfall process to commence from today afternoon. After landfall, the system is likely to move north-northeastwards close to Kolkata.   The system is now being continuously tracked by the Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) at Vishakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), Paradip (Odisha) and Gopalpur (Odisha). Heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred at isolated places over north coastal districts of Odisha and heavy rainfall over coastal West Bengal during the past 24 hours. Gale Wind, speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 125 kmph, prevailed along & off north coastal Odisha districts and 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph prevailed along & off south coastal Odisha.

(1) Heavy rainfall Warning
Odisha

 Heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over north coastal Odisha (Balasore, Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Jajpur, Kendrapara, and Keonjhargarh Districts) and isolated heavy falls over Jagatsinghpur district on 20th May 2020.

 West Bengal

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places & extremely heavy falls at isolated places likely over Gangetic West Bengal (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata and adjoining districts) on 20th May and isolated heavy rain over interior districts on 21st May, 2020.

 Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim

Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Malda & Dinajpur districts on 20th May and over most of the districts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 21st May, 2020.

 Assam & Meghalaya

Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the western districts of Assam & Meghalaya on 21st May.

(2) Wind warning

 West Bengal & Odisha

Gale wind, speed reaching 90 to 100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph is prevailing along and off Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore and Mayurbhanj districts of Odisha and squally wind speed reaching 55 to 65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is prevailing along & off remaining coastal districts of Odisha  (Puri, Khordha, Cuttack, Jajpur) during 20th May 2020.

It will gradually increase becoming 100 to 110 kmph gusting to 125 kmph along & off the above-mentioned districts of North Odisha during forenoon to an afternoon of 20th May 2020.

Gale wind speed reaching 80 to 90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph is prevailing along and off West Bengal coast (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata Districts).

Gale wind speed reaching 155 to 165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph very likely along & off east Medinipur and north & south 24 Parganas districts and 110-120 kmph gusting to 130 kmph over Kolkata, Hoogli, Howrah and West Medinipur Districts of West Bengal during the time of landfall (20th afternoon tonight).

Deep Sea area

Gale wind speed reaching 165-175 gusting to 195 kmph is prevailing over northwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal. Gale wind, speed reaching 150-160 gusting to 175 kmph is prevailing over northern parts of central Bay of Bengal. It will gradually decrease becoming 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph over North Bay of Bengal during the evening hours of today, the 20th of May.

(3) Sea condition:

Sea condition is Phenomenal and is very likely to continue for the next 06 hours over Westcentral Bay of Bengal and for the next 12 hours over Northwest Bay of Bengal.

(4) Fishermen Warning

The fishermen are advised not to venture into North Bay of Bengal and adjoining central Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours. Also, fishermen are advised not to venture into North Bay of Bengal along and off North Odisha, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts during next 24 hours.

(5) Storm Surge expected

Storm Surge of about 4-5 meters above Astronomical Tide is likely to inundate low lying areas of south & north 24 Parganas and about 3-4 meters over the low lying areas of East Medinipur District of West Bengal during the time of Landfall. (Figure enclosed)

(6) Damage Expected and Action suggested

(a) West Bengal (East Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata districts)

Damage Expected:

• Extensive damage to all types of kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca structures. The potential threat from flying objects.
• Extensive uprooting of communication and power poles.
• Disruption of rail/road links at several places.
• Extensive damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards.
• Blowing down of Palm and coconut trees.
• The uprooting of large bushy trees.
• Large boats and ships may get torn from their moorings.
• Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:
•  Total suspension of fishing operations till 20th May 2020.
• Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.
•  People in affected areas to remain indoors. Mobilise evacuation from Low lying areas.
• Movement in motorboats and small ships not advisable.

 (b) Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Jajpur & Mayurbhanj)

Damage Expected:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. The potential threat from flying objects.
• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
• Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines, and signaling systems.
• Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts, and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
• Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:
• Total suspension of fishing operations till 20th May 2020.
• Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.
•  People in affected areas to remain indoors.
• Movement in motorboats and small ships not advisable.

Post Landfall Outlook:

            After the landfall, the system is very likely to continue to move north-northeastwards, across Gangetic West Bengal & Bangladesh and weaken gradually. It is likely to maintain the intensity of Cyclonic Storm till the morning of 21st May and thereafter it will weaken into a Deep Depression over Bangladesh.

           Under its influence gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph likely over interior Districts (Murshidabad & Nadia) of Gangetic West Bengal during 20th night to 21st morning.

            Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy falls very likely over interior districts of Gangetic West Bengal on 21st. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Malda & Dinajpur districts on 20th May and over most of the districts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 21st May 2020. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the western districts of Assam & Meghalaya on 21st May.

Damage Expected and Action suggested for interior districts of Gangetic West Bengal.

(i) Minor damage to power and communication lines.

(ii) Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads.

(iii) Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of small trees.

(iv) Damage to banana and papaya trees.

(v) People in affected areas to remain indoors.

 Kindly visit www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in and www.mausam.imd.gov.in for updates on the system.